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An eFeedLink article published on 24 June reports that global fishmeal production fell 28% year on year in Q1 2026, while fish oil output declined 12%, citing IFFO data presented at the Blue Food Innovation Summit in London. The article frames the fall as part of a broader aquafeed pressure point: climate volatility, El Niño risk in Peru, competition from Chinese feed demand and salmon producers, and the continued difficulty of replacing marine ingredients without compromising fish growth, health and product quality.
For the BSF sector, this is a constructive market signal. It does not mean insect meal will immediately replace fishmeal tonne for tonne. It means the aquafeed industry has a stronger reason to qualify resilient ingredients before the next supply shock. That is a much better opening for BSF: not as an emergency substitute, but as a planned component in higher-diversity, lower-risk aquafeed formulations.
The marine ingredient signal is creating a real opening
IFFO’s own May market update gives the same direction of travel. Fishmeal production in March 2026 fell 38% year on year, and cumulative Q1 fishmeal production was down 28% versus 2025. Fish oil output was more resilient, but still down 12% over the same period. The data covered IFFO members in Chile, Denmark, Faroe Islands, Iceland, Ivory Coast, Mauritius, Norway, the UK, the USA, Peru, South Africa and Spain, accounting for about 40% of global fishmeal production and 50% of fish oil output.
Peru remains the crucial variable. IFFO noted that Peru’s first 2026 anchovy quota was set at 1,914,049 metric tonnes, equal to 27% of estimated biomass. It also stated that Peru normally represents around 20% of global fishmeal and fish oil output. A later IFFO update reported that the Peruvian season progressed slowly under Coastal El Niño conditions, with a new extended fishing ban in the north-centre region from 27 May to 10 June because of warm water and high juvenile presence.
For feed buyers, this kind of volatility changes behaviour. Even when annual marine ingredient production is not structurally collapsing, regional shocks, juvenile protection measures, El Niño conditions and competing demand can create price and availability stress at the wrong moment in the production cycle. Ingredients that can reduce exposure to those shocks become more valuable. That is where BSF gains strategic relevance.
Why this helps BSF now
The positive case for BSF is that feed companies increasingly need a portfolio of ingredients that reduces dependence on a narrow marine raw-material base. eFeedLink lists insect meal alongside algal oil, single-cell protein, microbial ingredients, precision fermentation products and oil-rich genetically modified crops as alternatives now being commercialised. It also notes that modern salmon feed may contain more than 20 ingredients, compared with near-total reliance on fishmeal and fish oil in the 1990s.
That diversified formulation reality is favourable for BSF. Aquafeed buyers are no longer looking for one perfect replacement. They are building ingredient systems. BSFL meal can occupy a useful position inside that system by contributing digestible protein, palatability, functional bioactives and a supply chain that is not directly tied to anchovy seasons.
This is an important distinction. BSF meal does not need to copy fishmeal perfectly to become commercially relevant. It needs to perform a defined role inside the formulation. In plant-heavy diets, that role can include improving palatability, supporting gut function, providing high-quality animal protein, and reducing the amount of marine ingredient needed to reach the same performance target. In premium feeds, it can also help create a more resilient ingredient architecture.
Fishmeal and fish oil are not interchangeable with BSF, and that is fine. Fishmeal contributes highly digestible protein, amino acids, minerals and growth factors. Fish oil remains the major route for EPA and DHA. BSF meal can support the protein and functional side, while BSF oil may have value for medium-chain fatty acids and energy. The strongest future aquafeed stack is likely BSF meal plus algal oil, microbial protein, plant proteins, attractants and functional additives. In that stack, BSF is not a compromise. It is one of the ingredients that helps the whole system work.
For BSF producers, this is commercially attractive because the conversation becomes less binary. Instead of defending a full replacement claim, producers can show how BSF reduces fishmeal exposure while improving resilience in practical formulations. That is easier to test, easier to price, and easier for feed mills to adopt gradually.
Fishmeal becoming strategic is good for BSF
IFFO’s analysis of FAO’s State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2026 argues that aquaculture reached 103 million tonnes in 2024 and that fishmeal and fish oil production has remained broadly stable since the mid-2000s, averaging around 5 million tonnes and 1 million tonnes respectively. It also notes that by-products supplied 34% of global fishmeal production and 54% of fish oil production in 2024.
From a marine-ingredient perspective, that supports strategic use rather than disappearance. From a BSF perspective, it is a positive structural trend. If fishmeal becomes a precision ingredient used where its properties are most valuable, then other ingredients must carry more of the bulk protein, functional support and formulation flexibility. BSF does not need fishmeal to vanish. It benefits when fishmeal is expensive, carefully allocated and supply-constrained enough that feed mills invest in qualifying robust alternatives.
That is already the direction of travel. Inclusion rates of marine ingredients have fallen over decades, not because they stopped working, but because feed formulation became more sophisticated. BSF benefits from the same transition. The market is moving away from single-ingredient dependence and toward ingredient architecture.
A better commercial lane for BSF producers
The opening is positive because it rewards exactly what the stronger BSF producers are already trying to build: consistent specifications, predictable processing, differentiated product formats and application-specific data. A feed mill under marine-ingredient pressure is more likely to test a BSF ingredient when it can be described precisely and used deliberately.
For BSF operators, the practical priorities are clear:
- produce a stable specification, not a generic insect meal,
- separate defatted meal, full-fat meal, oil and hydrolysate as different products,
- generate species-specific aquafeed data rather than relying on broad poultry or pet-food claims,
- test low-inclusion functional use as well as fishmeal replacement,
- document batch consistency across substrate changes, drying conditions and storage,
- show how BSF performs in combination with algal oil, plant proteins and other functional ingredients.
The most immediate commercial lane may be aquafeeds where formulators want to reduce fishmeal exposure but cannot afford performance loss: shrimp, trout, salmonids at specific life stages, and high-value species with disease or gut-health pressure. In those diets, BSF can be positioned as a resilience ingredient with functional upside, not just a sustainability badge.
The pricing signal strengthens the case
Marine ingredient tightness creates an opening that should make aquafeed companies more receptive to BSF trials, supplier qualification and formulation partnerships. Price still matters, but the discussion changes when the buyer is managing supply risk as well as ingredient cost. If BSF can demonstrate performance at low inclusion, improve resilience in plant-heavy diets, or reduce dependence on volatile fishmeal procurement, its value is not limited to crude protein percentage.
This is why the eFeedLink article is positive for the BSF industry. It shows that the aquafeed sector’s search for alternatives is no longer theoretical. The pressure is visible in production data, price risk, climate risk and formulation complexity. It also points to a more mature opportunity: alternatives that fit into sophisticated feeds with digestibility, omega-3 strategy, palatability, fish health and product quality.
A 28% fishmeal output drop gives BSF producers a stronger reason to be at the formulation table. The companies that arrive with reliable specifications, credible trial data and a clear role in diversified aquafeeds will find a market that is increasingly prepared to listen.
Sources
- eFeedLink. Global fishmeal output fell 28% in Q1 2026 as aquafeed industry accelerates search for alternatives. Published 24 June 2026.
- IFFO. Reduced fishmeal production, fish oil production shows more resilience. Published 7 May 2026.
- IFFO. Marine ingredients market trends: All eyes on Peru, while China’s domestic production of marine ingredients remains constrained. Published 1 June 2026.
- IFFO. The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2026: an analysis through the marine ingredients lens.
